In this article I looked at all the senate races in 2014.
36 Senate races will be decided in 2014. Many, perhaps most, will not be close. However, quite a few probably will be close. One that may be close is the senate race in Alaska, where Mark Begich faces a Republican who will be picked in a primary on Aug 19.
Alaska politics
In elections for President, Alaska has been solidly Republican.Romney beat Obama 55-41 and McCain beat Obama 60-38.
Statewide, Alaska’s other senator is Lisa Murkowski, a Republican and its lone House member is also a Republican (Don Young).
The Senate race
Mark Begich: The Democratic candidate for Senate from Alaska
Begich first won election in 2008. Progressive Punch ranks him the 36th most progressive member of the senate, which marks him as a moderate Democrat. On the issues rates him as a “moderate liberal populist”. His motto (from his website) is “As independent as Alaska”. He is pro-choice and pro-gay rights; moderate on the environment; strongly pro-gun rights; conservative on drug issues.
The Republican primary
The Republican primary includes five declared candidates. The leaders are Dan Sullivan, Mead Treadwell and Joe Millier. Miller is the most conservative and the favorite of the Tea Party.
- May 6 – a new poll by the Sullivan campaign has him beat Treadwell 38-22 in the primary, with Miller at 12.
- May 13 – a poll by PPP has Sullivan leading by 14 over Treadwell: 40 to 26 with 14% for Miller
- June 16 – a poll by Vox Populi has Sullivan leading with 32, Treadwell, 23 and Miller 15. Clearly a lot of undecideds
The polls:
In the Republican primary, the most recent poll shows Sullivan leading with 30%, Treadwell second with 25% and Miller third with 20%. In the general election, the PPP poll shows Begich leading all Republican challengers, but it is close against Treadwell or Sullivan. If Miller wins the primary, Begich should win re-election easily.
- May 6 – A poll by the (Republican) Sullivan campaign has Begich up by 2.
- May 13 – A poll by PPP has Begich up 42-37 over Sullivan, 41-33 over Treadwell and 43-28 over Miller. Begich’s support is similar in all three match ups; the difference goes to third party candidates.
Fundraising
According to the FEC, at the end of 2013 Begich had $2.8 million cash on hand; Miller had $232,000, Treadwell $95,000 and Sullivan $1.1 million
- First quarter
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- April 9 – Begich raised $1 million and has $2.8 million on hand
- April 21 – Miller raised $100,000 has $300,000 on hand
News
March 24 – Mead Treadwell has dismissed his campaign manager and communications director
Sources:
Election results: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Fundraising and other stuff http://www.fec.gov/data/CandidateSummary.do
On the issues: http://www.ontheissues.org/senate/Mark_Begich.htm
PPP Poll: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AK_204.pdf
Treadwell dismissal http://www.politico.com/story/2014/03/alaska-mead-treadwell-mark-begich-2014-elections-104871.html
