Senate Races 2014: General Outlook as of March 3, 2014

There are 36 senate races in 2014. Most of them are fairly certain to be won by one party or the other, but quite a few might switch. Since the Democrats currently have a 55-45 seat advantage, the Republicans would have to gain a net of 6 seats to flip the Senate to Republican control. In this article, I take an overall look at the senate races; in later articles I will look at races that may become competitive.

1. Alabama – Currently Republican, very unlikely to switch. Sen. Jeff Sessions is pretty sure to be re-elected.
2. Alaska – Currently Democratic, competitive. Sen Mark Begich will face a Republican to be chosen on Aug 19. A lot depends on who wins that primary,but Begich is likely to have a tough race.
3. Arkansas – Currently Democratic, competitive. Sen Mark Pryor will face Rep. Tom Cotton. The latest polling shows Cotton with a slight lead.
4. Colorado – Currently Democratic, competitive. Sen Mark Udall will face a Republican to be chosen June 24. There is something of a lack of recent polling against some Republicans.
5. Delaware – Currently Democratic, very unlikely to switch. Sen Chris Coons should win re-election easily.
6. Georgia – Currently Republican, competitive. Sen Saxby Chambliss is retiring. A crowded Republican field is running to replace him, while the Democrats have pretty much decided on Michelle Nunn. Latest polling shows Nunn with a slight lead over most of the Republicans.
7. Hawaii – Currently Democratic, very unlikely to switch. The real question here is who will win the Democratic primary between Colleen Hinabusa and Brian Schatz.
8. Idaho – Currently Republican, very unlikely to switch. Sen Jim Risch should win easily in one of the most conservative states in the country.
9. Illinois – Currently Democratic, very unlikely to switch. Sen Richard (Dick) Durbin is unlikely to face a serious challenger.
10. Iowa – Currently Democratic, competitive. Sen Tom Harkin is retiring. The Democrat will be Bruce Braley, but the Republican race is crowded and has no clear leader. Polls show Braley with a lead, but a lot will depend on who they pick.
11. Kansas – Currently Republican, very unlikely to switch. Sen Pat Roberts is expected to win easily in both the primary and general election.
12. Kentucky – Currently Republican, competitive. Sen Mitch McConnell is facing a strong challenge from Alison Lundergan Grimes. The latest polls show a very close race.
13. Louisiana – Currently Democratic, competitive. Sen Mary Landrieu has won several close elections. Louisiana has a “jungle primary” with everyone running at once. There is likely to be a runoff of Landrieu against Cassidy and that race looks very close in recent polling
14. Maine – Currently Republican, potentially competitive. Sen Susan Collins is very popular overall in Maine, but she is not so popular among her own party. She faces a challenge from Erick Benett, who is much more conservative. If Collins wins the primary, she should win easily in November. But if she loses, it becomes a very different ballgame. The Democrat is likely to be Shenna Bellows.
15. Massachusetts – Currently Democratic, very unlikely to switch. Sen Ed Markey is expected to win easily.
16. Michigan – Currently Democratic, competitive. Sen Carl Levin is retiring. There are primaries in both parties, but the leaders are Terri Lynn Land (for the Republicans) and Gary Peters (for the Democrats). Polling shows a close race.
17. Minnesota – Currently Democratic, very unlikely to switch. Sen Al Franken should win easily.
18. Mississippi – Currently Republican, possibly competitive. Sen Thad Cochran has a primary challenge; he is likely to prevail in the primary, and, if he does, he is very likely to win in November. But if the primary challenger (Chris McDaniel) wins, then it could be a close race. This is a primary to watch, and it happens June 3.
19. Montana – Currently Democratic, competitive. After Sen Max Baucus retired mid term to become an ambassador, the Democrats appointed John Walsh. He will face Steve Daines in November. Polls show Daines with a moderate lead; this is a likely Republican pickup.
20. Nebraska – Currently Republican, unlikely to switch. Although Sen. Mike Johanns is retiring, the main suspense is which of two Republicans will replace him.
21. New Hampshire – Currently Democratic, potentially competitive. Sen Jeanne Shaheen should win easily; if Scott Brown enters the Republican race, he would make a somewhat tougher challenger.
22. New Jersey – Currently Democratic, very unlikely to switch. Sen Cory Booker should win re-election easily.
23. New Mexico – Currently Democratic, very unlikely to switch. Sen Tom Udall should win easily.
24. North Carolina – Currently Democratic, competitive. Sen Kay Hagan is a big target for Republicans but it is not yet clear which Republican she will face. At least 8 candidates are squaring off in the Republican primary which is on May 6 and recent polling shows no decisive leader and a lot of undecided voters.
25. Oklahoma (I)- Currently Republican, very unlikely to switch. Sen Tom Coburn is retiring early, but this seat is very unlikely to switch in Oklahoma, one of the most conservative states in the country.
26. Oklahoma (II) – Currently Republican, very unlikely to switch. Sen James Inhofe should win re-election easily.
27. Oregon – Currently Democratic, unlikely to switch. Sen Jeff Merkley should win easily in Democratic Oregon; however, if the Republicans pick a moderate in their primary, this might be a race.
28. Rhode Island – Currently Democratic, very unlikely to switch. Sen Jack Reed should coast to re-election.
29. South Carolina (I) – Currently Republican, very unlikely to switch. The main question here is whether Sen. Lindsey Graham avoids a runoff against his primary challengers.
30. South Carolina (II) – Currently Republican, very unlikely to switch. Sen Tim Scott was appointed to replace Jim DeMint, who retired. He is very likely to be re-elected to a full term.
31. South Dakota -Currently Democratic, competitive. Sen Tim Johnson is retiring.Although there are primaries in both parties, the likely winners are Rick Weiland for the Democrats and Mike Rounds for the Republicans. Polling shows Rounds with a large lead, making SD perhaps the state most likely to switch.
32. Tennessee – Currently Republican, very unlikely to switch. Sen. Lamar Alexander is expected to win easily.
33. Texas – currently Republican, very unlikely to switch. Sen. John Cornyn is facing a primary challenge that seems very unlikely to go anywhere and is strongly favored in November.
34. Virginia – Currently Democratic, unlikely to switch. Although the entry of Ed Gillespie into the Republican field makes this a little bit interesting, current polling shows incumbent Sen Mark Warner with a large lead.
35. West Virginia – currently Democratic, competitive. Sen Jay Rockefeller is retiring. Although both parties have primaries, the likely winners are Shelly Moore Capito (for the Republicans) and Natalie Tennant for the Democrats.
36. Wyoming – Currently Republican, very unlikely to switch. Sen Michael Enzi is likely to win easily.