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Louisiana Senate Race 2014: Can Landrieu Be Re-elected? UPDATE July 2

by yak max

In this article I looked at all the senate races in 2014.

36 Senate races will be decided in 2014. Many will be easy victories for one side or the other. However, quite a few probably will be close. In Louisiana the incumbent is a Democrat, Mary Landrieu. Louisiana has an unusual system in which all candidates enter one primary, to be held on election day in November. If no candidate gets a majority, there will be a runoff on December 6.

Louisiana politics

In elections for President, Louisiana has been solidly Republican, Romney beat Obama 58-41 and McCain beat him 59-40.

Statewide, in 2008, Landrieu won narrowly over Republican John Kennedy. Louisiana’ss other senator is Republican David Vitter. Its governor, Bobby Jindal is also a Republican, as are 5 of its 6 members of the House of Representatives.

The Senate race

Landrieu is the only Democrat running. On the Issues rates her a centrist. She is a moderate on choice (43% rating by NARAL), a supporter of equal rights for women and minorities, moderate on labor, a supporter of public education, favors expanding oil production in the gulf but is also pro-environment. Progressive Punch rates her the 54th most progressive member of the Senate.

Republicans include Bill Cassidy, who is a member of the House of Representatives, Paul Hollis, who is in the state House and Rob Maness. Polls show Landrieu and Cassidy entering the runoff. On the Issues rates Cassidy a “moderate libertarian conservative”. He is anti-choice, favors a balanced budget amendment to the constitution, opposed the Violence against Women Act, has a very anti-environmental record. Progressive Punch rates him the 281st most progressive member of the House.

The polls:

A PPP poll of the general election shows a very close race in the runoff, with Landrieu beating Cassidy by a single point.

  • A poll by Magellan shows Landrieu winning the jungle primary with 39%, Cassidy 2nd with 26%, but they didn’t ask about runoffs
  • April 18 – Crossroads (Republican) has Landrieu and Cassidy going into a primary and Cassidy winning the runoff by 4.
  • April 23 – A NY Times poll has Landrieu way ahead in the first round (she gets 42, next best is Cassidy at 18) but they did not poll the runoff.
  • May 9 – A Southern Media Opinion Research poll finds Landrieu ahead in the jungle primary with 36, Cassidy 35, Mannes 7 and Hollis 5. They did not poll any runoffs.
  • May 19 – A poll by Greenlan, Quinlan, Rosner has Landrieu almost avoiding a runoff in the jungle primary with 48%. Cassidy second with 29. In a runoff, she is tied with Cassidy at 49.
  • June 16 – A poll by Magellan has Cassidy up by 6
  • July 2 – A poll by PPP has Cassidy and Landrieu tied at 47 in what will almost certainly be a runoff. In the first round they have Landrieu getting 44 and Cassidy 27

Fundraising

According to the FEC, at the end of 2013, Landrieu had raised $5.6 million and had $5.8 million cash on hand. Cassidy had raised $5.2 million and had $4.2 million cash on hand

  • April 8 – In the 1st quarter, Landrieu raised $1.8 million and had $7.5 million on hand. Cassidy raised $1.2 million and had $5 million on hand

My take

This is certainly a race to watch, and may make control of the senate hang in the balance until after November; nevertheless, Landrieu has won close races before.

Sources:

Election results: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Fundraising and other stuff http://www.fec.gov/data/CandidateSummary.do

On the issues: http://www.ontheissues.org/senate/mary_landrieu.htm

PPP poll

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