In this article I looked at all the senate races in 2014.
36 Senate races will be decided in 2014. Many will be easy victories for one side or the other. However, quite a few probably will be close. In Louisiana the incumbent is a Democrat, Mary Landrieu. Louisiana has an unusual system in which all candidates enter one primary, to be held on election day in November. If no candidate gets a majority, there will be a runoff on December 6.
Louisiana politics
In elections for President, Louisiana has been solidly Republican, Romney beat Obama 58-41 and McCain beat him 59-40.
Statewide, in 2008, Landrieu won narrowly over Republican John Kennedy. Louisiana’ss other senator is Republican David Vitter. Its governor, Bobby Jindal is also a Republican, as are 5 of its 6 members of the House of Representatives.
The Senate race
Landrieu is the only Democrat running. On the Issues rates her a centrist. She is a moderate on choice (43% rating by NARAL), a supporter of equal rights for women and minorities, moderate on labor, a supporter of public education, favors expanding oil production in the gulf but is also pro-environment. Progressive Punch rates her the 54th most progressive member of the Senate.
Republicans include Bill Cassidy, who is a member of the House of Representatives, Paul Hollis, who is in the state House and Rob Maness. Polls show Landrieu and Cassidy entering the runoff. On the Issues rates Cassidy a “moderate libertarian conservative”. He is anti-choice, favors a balanced budget amendment to the constitution, opposed the Violence against Women Act, has a very anti-environmental record. Progressive Punch rates him the 281st most progressive member of the House.
The polls:
A PPP poll of the general election shows a very close race in the runoff, with Landrieu beating Cassidy by a single point.
- A poll by Magellan shows Landrieu winning the jungle primary with 39%, Cassidy 2nd with 26%, but they didn’t ask about runoffs
- April 18 – Crossroads (Republican) has Landrieu and Cassidy going into a primary and Cassidy winning the runoff by 4.
- April 23 – A NY Times poll has Landrieu way ahead in the first round (she gets 42, next best is Cassidy at 18) but they did not poll the runoff.
- May 9 – A Southern Media Opinion Research poll finds Landrieu ahead in the jungle primary with 36, Cassidy 35, Mannes 7 and Hollis 5. They did not poll any runoffs.
- May 19 – A poll by Greenlan, Quinlan, Rosner has Landrieu almost avoiding a runoff in the jungle primary with 48%. Cassidy second with 29. In a runoff, she is tied with Cassidy at 49.
- June 16 – A poll by Magellan has Cassidy up by 6
- July 2 – A poll by PPP has Cassidy and Landrieu tied at 47 in what will almost certainly be a runoff. In the first round they have Landrieu getting 44 and Cassidy 27
Fundraising
According to the FEC, at the end of 2013, Landrieu had raised $5.6 million and had $5.8 million cash on hand. Cassidy had raised $5.2 million and had $4.2 million cash on hand
- April 8 – In the 1st quarter, Landrieu raised $1.8 million and had $7.5 million on hand. Cassidy raised $1.2 million and had $5 million on hand
My take
This is certainly a race to watch, and may make control of the senate hang in the balance until after November; nevertheless, Landrieu has won close races before.
Sources:
Election results: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Fundraising and other stuff http://www.fec.gov/data/CandidateSummary.do
On the issues: http://www.ontheissues.org/senate/mary_landrieu.htm
PPP poll
