In this article I looked at all the senate races in 2014.
36 Senate races will be decided in 2014. Many, perhaps most, will not be close. However, quite a few probably will be close. In Georgia, there is an open race, due to Saxby Chambliss’ retirement. The Democrat will almost certainly be Michelle Nunn but the Republican nomination is up in the air.
In elections for President, Georgia has been Republican, although not overwhelmingly so: In 2012, Romney beat Obama 53-45; in 2008, McCain won 52-47.
Statewide, in 2008, Chambliss won narrowly over Democrat Jim Martin. Georgia’s other senator is Republican John Isakson, its governor, Nathan Deal, is also a Republican, as are 9 of its 15 members of the House of Representatives.
The Senate race
Although there is a Democratic primary, it is generally assumed that Michelle Nunn will win. Nunn has not held elective office before; she is currently the CEO of a nonprofit corporation. On the Issues rates her as a “moderate libertarian liberal”. She is pro-choice, wants each state to decide on its own about gay marriage, favors lower tax rates for corporations, favors increased spending on education, wants to amend but not eliminate ObamaCare and favors a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants.
The Republican primary
The Republican primary includes seven declared candidates with no clear leader; polls show that many Republicans remain undecided; a recent poll by HEG/AP found almost half undecided. May 2 – this is still wide open.
- Mar 22 – A SurveyUSA poll finds David Perdue in front with 29%, Kingston 2nd with 19% and only 15% undecided
- Mar 28 – A LandMark Rosetta Stone poll shows Perdue in front with 22%, Kingston and Broun tied fro 2nd with 15%
- April 18 – A poll by InsiderAdvantage showed Perdue with 19%, Kingston 15%, Handel 13%, Broun 11% and Gingrey 9%
- May 2 – Another InsiderAdvantage poll showed Perdue with 22%, Handel 21%, Kingston 17%. A poll by McLaughlin for the Kingston campaign found him leading with 20%, Perdue 17% and Handel 14%.
- May 9 – A poll by Rosetta for Karen Handel finds Perdue with 23, Handel 21, Kingston 15 and Broun and Gingrey 9 each.
- May 16: An Insider Advantage poll has Perdue leading with 27%, Kingston with 19%, Handel 17%
- May 20: A final poll before the primary. The August Chronicle finds Perdue with 26, Handel and Kingston tied at 17, Gingrey 11 and Broun 10
It will be Kingston vs. Perdue in a runoff. The runoff will be on July 22. The results (as of May 21)
- Perdue: 184,459 or 31%
- Kingston: 155,456 or 26%
- Handel: 132,437 or 22%
- Gingrey: 60,443 or 10%
- Broun: 58,138 or 10%
The Republican Runoff
- May 25: PPP has Kingston leading Perdue 46-34.
- June 6: SurveyUSA has Kingston beating Perdue 52-41
- June 16: Insider Advantage has Kingston winning 46-35
- June 18: Gravis Marketing has Kingston up, 49-38
The polls: A PPP poll of the general election shows Nunn with very small leads over the Republican contender.
- May 13: A poll by Marist has Nunn up by small amounts against Gingrey and Handel, down by small amounts against Broun and Perdue, and exactly even with Kingston
- May 13: A poll by the Atlanta Journal Constitution has Nunn up against all the opponents, by 1 against Perdue and by 8 or more against all the others.
- May 20 – WSB-TV and Landmark Communications found Nunn leading by between 1 and 6 points against all contenders. The smallest lead was against Perdue
- May 25 – Rasmussen has Nunn leading Kingston by 6 and Perdue by 3
- May 25 – PPP has Nunn beating Perdue by 2 and tied with Kingston
- June 6 – SurveyUSA has Perdue beating Nunn by 5 and Kingston beating her by 5
According to the FEC, Kingston had the most cash on hand ($3.4 million) with Nunn in 2nd ($2.5 million), Gingrey 3rd ($2.4 million) and Perdue 4th ($1.8 million), with the others trailing.
- 1st Quarter
- April 10 – Broun raised $345,000 and has $230,000 on hand; Gingrey raised $326,000
- April 15 – Nunn raised $2.4 million; Perdue raised $573,000 has $700,000 on hand
- April 10 – the American Future Fund endorsed Karen Handel in the Republican primary
This is certainly a race to watch! Right now, Michelle Nunn has a slight edge; the Republicans may damage each other in the primary, it has already been something of a race to be the most conservative, which may hurt the winner in November.
Election results: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Fundraising and other stuff http://www.fec.gov/data/CandidateSummary.do
On the issues: http://www.ontheissues.org/senate/Michelle_Nunn.htm