In this article I looked at all the senate races in 2014.
36 Senate races will be decided in 2014. Many, perhaps most, will not be close. One that may be close is the senate race in Arkansas where Sen. Mark Pryor, a Democrat, faces Republican Tom Cotton.
Arkansas politics
In elections for President, Arkansas has been solidly Republican in recent elections: Romney beat Obama 61-37 in 2012 and McCain beat Obama 59-39 in 2008, and Republican margins have increased recently.
Statewide, Arkansas’ other senator, John Boozman is a Republican and all 4 of its members of the House of Representatives are Republicans. However, its governor, Mike Beebe, is a Democrat
The Senate race
Mark Pryor: The Democratic candidate for Senate from Arkansas
Pryor first won election in 2002. Progressive Punch ranks him the 52nd most progressive member of the senate, which marks him as one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate. On the Issues rates him as a “centrist”. He has a mixed record on abortion and the environment, a liberal record on civil rights for gays and Blacks and on public health, and a conservative record on crime and gun rights.
Tom Cotton: The Republican candidate for Senate from Arkansas
Tom Cotton is unopposed to run against Pryor. He is currently a member of the House of Representatives. On the Issues rates him a “libertarian leaning conservative”. He is anti-choice, opposed the violence against women act, wants same sex marriage to be illegal, wants ObamaCare repealed, wants extensive cuts in government services, opposes the UN and has a conservative record on conservation. Progressive Punch rates him the 367th most progressive member of the House.
The polls:
Most recent polling shows Cotton with a small lead. The latest poll from PPP shows the race even.
- April 9 – A Talk Business poll has Pryor up by 3
- April 11 – A poll by Opinion Research Associates has Pryor up 10
- April 14 – A poll by Anzlone Liszt Grove has Pryor up by 3
- April 18 – Crossroads (Republican) has it even
- April 23 – A NY Times poll has Pryor up by 10
- April 30 – A poll by PPP has Pryor up by 1.
- May 13 – A poll by Marist has Pryor up by 11
- May 30 – Rasmussen has Pryor up by 4
- June 4 – Public Opinion Strategies has Cotton up by 5
- June 13 – Magellan has Cotton up by 4
Fundraising
According to the FEC, at the end of 2013 Pryor had raised $5.3 million and had $4.2 million cash on hand. Cotton had raised $3.4 million and had $2.2 million cash on hand.
- 1st quarter
-
- April 16 Mark Pryor raised $1.22 million has $4.4 million on hand, Tom Cotton raised $1.35 million
My take:
Although Arkansas is an increasingly Republican state, this race pits a moderate Democrat (indeed, one of the most conservative) against an ideologue and Pryor has the advantage of incumbency. I predict a close race and a Pryor victory.
Sources:
Election results: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Fundraising and other stuff http://www.fec.gov/data/CandidateSummary.do
On the issues: http://www.ontheissues.org/senate/Mark_Begich.htm
PPP Poll: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/ArkansasPollMemo.pdf
House of Representatives: http://www.house.gov/representatives/
