Every four years, soccer fans have the belief that their nation has a chance to make it through the group play, into the 2nd round and somehow win the World Cup. While the odds are not good, each team still has that glimmer of hope. Unfortunately, when emotion is taken out of the equation, only a few teams have a shot at winning. In fact, using the merits and statistics of the previous 20 years of World Cup winners, we already know what team will win the World Cup in 2014.
Starting with all 32 teams, by process of elimination, let’s determine which team will win it all this year.
Variable # 1 – Similar time zone
In the past twenty years, no team ever won the World Cup from a country from a different time zone more than +3 hours. (the one exception is 2002, but there was not one team ranked better than 32)
- 1994 – Location – USA, Winner – Brazil , Time zone Difference – 1 hour
- 1998 – Location – France, Winner – France, Time zone Difference – Same
- 2002 – Location – Japan/South Korea, Winner – Brazil, Time zone Difference – 12 hours
- 2006 – Location – Germany, Winner – Italy, Time zone Difference – Same
- 2010 – Location – South Africa, Winner – Spain, Time zone Difference – 1 hour
The 10 teams left are:
Costa Rica, Honduras, Mexico, United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay.
Variable #2 – Ranked higher than 19th in the world
Out of the teams that won the World Cup, the lowest rank of the winner was France in 1998, who were the host country and ranked 18th at the time of the World Cup.
Teams Eliminated: Costa Rica, Honduras, Mexico, Ecuador
6 teams left
Variable #3 – Previous World Cup Ranking 6th or better
Looking back to the previous World Cup winners, there is only one who was not ranked lower than 6th in the previous world cup. France, in 1998, was the only winner would did not only rank higher than 7th . France, however, was the host country, which gave them the home field advantage.
This will eliminate all the teams with the exception of Brazil
Brazil has made it through three rounds of elimination and their prize will be the 6th World Cup win for the country.
- Time Zone is the same
- Ranked 11th in the world
- Was ranked 1st in world during the previous World Cup
Congratulations Brazil, you have won the 2014 World Cup on paper, now all you have to do is survive a round robin group play, and then a bunch of elimination games.